Here goes installment 2 of my preseason divisional breakdowns. I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think. These are my predictions and observations for the AFC West.
Denver Broncos: 6-10.
Guys, I am pretty much starting with the Broncos to get them out of the way. While I respect the organization for somehow staying afloat post-Manning, I just can’t commend them for any measure of talent level on offense. I did have the lucky privilege of drafting Phillip Lindsay in round 8 or 9 last year to receive round 4 production from him, though. Lindsay is a beast for his size. He was undoubtedly the most underrated RB from the 2018 season. He very quietly averaged 5.4 YPC and was very reliable as a pass catcher. The general idea was a 2-back system between him and Royce Freeman (who isn’t half bad either), but Lindsay quite literally ran away with the job and never looked back. He is the clear cut RB1 this year and I like him as the same dependable RB2 he was for me all season long in 2018. Do I think Joe Flacco is better than Case Keenum? Honestly, not really; but he does come with plenty of experience that Keenum doesn’t have in the same run attack-occasional deep ball package that Denver made themselves famous for last year. Drafting him? Nope. Emmanuel Sanders (assuming he is healthy enough) and Courtland Sutton are going to share the majority of the targets in the air, but it doesn’t really matter who is more productive because they are both matchup-dependent flex plays until further notice. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. Irrelevant side note, my Wisconsin boy Troy Fumagalli is currently TE2 in Denver, so this year might be the year!
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-3.
Ok. Now that the Broncos are out of the way, let’s dive right into the powerhouses of the division. It makes no sense to start anywhere but KC. First off, there is Pat Mahomes. 2018 MVP. 5000 yards. 50 Touchdowns. I am feeling pretty confident that he is my number 1 gunslinger again this year. The guy has a rocket launcher for an arm, has solid blocking as a general rule, and is faster than 85-90% of the linebackers that do come his way when he needs to get out. The combination of Andy Reid’s brilliance in play design and Pat’s otherworldly talent pretty much makes any other Chief’s uniform fantasy relevant. Damien Williams is an RB1 all the live long day. I would say this if I didn’t know his name or anything else about him outside the fact that he is KC’s starting back. Jamaal Charles, Charkandrick West, Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, Damien Williams. Collectively this group has averaged over 22 PPR fantasy points per game in each of their tenures as a KC starter since Andy Reid moved in, so expect this pattern to play on repeat with Mahomes opening up the field every week. Travis Kelce is the number 1 TE. No explanation needed. Sammy Watkins should actually play up this year with more consistency after his big deal and the fact that we still don’t know how many games Tyreek Hill will miss. To advise you on Hill, I think he is a late 2nd rounder if he misses 4 or less, and I will be moving him down one round for every week he misses after that.
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5.
I have absolutely no problem admitting that I am a bandwagon Chargers fan. I have told people for years that Rivers is an elite QB that can handle any defense. He has a temper problem, but more times than not it fuels him rather than trips him up. What I respect the most about him, though, is the fact that he isn’t trying to trick you. LA ran 4 basic sets for the entirety of their 12-4 campaign last season. While they had the occasional reverse or HB switch every few weeks, most of the success came from Rivers simply imposing his will down the field for score after score. The craziest part is that he does it to win, not for fans or jersey sales. To put that in perspective, he has close to double the amount of passing yards on his career (54,656) than the average number of tickets bought for a 2018 Chargers home game (32,768). Side note, he has only thrown under 4000 yards once since 2008. Now, on to Melvin Gordon. I actually guessed the contract drama would happen here after LeVeon Bell blew up the league last year, given the time of Gordon’s contract renewal and his “value” to the team. The situations couldn’t be more similar though. His backup, Austin Ekeler, has averaged more YPC (5.3) over the last two seasons than Gordon himself (4.5). If Gordon stays, he is a late first rounder and please handcuff Ekeler late FOR SURE. If he leaves, treat Ekeler like James Conner last year. Hunter Henry will be a solid TE1 if he is healthy, but that’s a big IF. He has had plenty of time to rehab and rest at this point but only time will tell if he can stay on the field for any extended period of time. Keenan Allen is obviously the focal point of the pass attack, but I am always leery given his injury history as well. When he is on, he is on, though. In his past 2 seasons he has combined for 199 receptions, 2600 yards, and 12 scores. The two seasons before that, though, he played in 5 games. You see my dilemma?
Oakland Raiders: 8-8.
Last and almost least, the Oakland Raiders. I gave them 8-8 because I honestly have no clue. We are talking about a Gruden experiment that I can see the logic in but am just still not completely sold. Looking at the layout of the skill positions made me immediately think about the 2016 Bills. I know the comparison is soft but stick with me for a sec. The idea was to have a semi-mobile QB in Tyrod Taylor have patience in and out of the pocket to spread out streak receivers in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. As bad as the whole team was overall, we saw the concept work from time to time. I like this idea in talking about a recuperated Derek Carr (I know, I know.) waiting long enough for Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams to make some magic happen. We all know they can. While Brown is the obvious WR1 until further notice, I won’t be taking him as high as he has gone up until now because a change in system is a risk no matter the talent. The actual key in the offense though was that the 2016 Bills relied heavily on a then-explosive LeSean McCoy to shift defensives in and draw spies to cut off screens and wheel routes. The only person on the Raiders roster that in any way fits the description of a young Shady McCoy is rookie Josh Jacobs. If this recipe works, then Jacobs could be in Rookie of the Year contention. If it fails, the Jon Gruden still makes 10 million dollars this year. He is the real MVP.
Thanks for tuning in guys. See you next week.
Locker Room Talk With Chris 